Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
